Database : HANSEN Search on : SIMULACAO POR COMPUTADOR [Subject descriptor] References found : 3 [refine] Displaying: 1 .. 3   in format [Detailed]

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Id: 18205 Author: Meima, Abraham; Smith, W. Carins S; Van Oortmarssen, Gerrit J; Richardus, Jan H; Habbema, J. Dik F Title: The future incidence of leprosy: a scenario analysis ..- Source: s.l; s.n; 2004. 8 p. tab, graf. Abstract: Objective: To investigate the impact of the current strategy fot the elimination of leprosy on its incidence and to assess the consequences of failure to sustain this strategy. Methods: Scenarios for assessing the impact of the elimination strategy were implemented in a coputer simulation program. The scenarios reflected the assumptions made regarding contagiousness, transmission and bacille Calmet-Guerin (BCG) vaccination. The trend in case detection rate for the main countries in which leprosy was endemic during 1985-98 was fitted, and incidence up to 2020 was projected. Findings: Owing to the gradual shortening of delays in detection up to 1998, and because of the low relapse rate that occurs with multidrug treatment MDT, incidence is predicted to decrease beyond 2000 in all scenarios. The annual decline was a few per cent higher when favourable assumptions were made about protection and coverage of BCG vaccination. Overall, the predicted annual decline in incidences ranged from 2% to 12%. Conclusions: The elimination strategy reduces transmission, but the decline amy be slow. Relaxation of control after 2005 is unjustified given the uncertainty about the rate of decline and the adverse effects of longer delays in detection. A long-term strategy for leprosy control should be adopted (AU). Descriptors: HANSENIASE/diag HANSENIASE/epidemiol HANSENIASE/terap QUIMIOTERAPIA COMBINADA RESULTADO DE TRATAMENTO - QUIMIOTERAPIA/tend  QUIMIOTERAPIA/util  VACINA BCG/uso terap  SIMULACAO POR COMPUTADOR/estatíst  SIMULACAO POR COMPUTADOR/util Limits: HUMANO Location: BR191.1; 09191/s

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Id: 13723 Author: Meima, Abraham; Irgens, Lorentz M; Van Oortmarssen, Gerrit J; Richardus, Jan H; Habbema, Dik F Title: Disappearance of leprosy from Norway: an exploration of critical factors using an epidemiological modelling approach ..- Source: s.l; s.n; 2002. 10 p. ilus, tab, graf. Abstract: BACKGROUND: By the middle of the 19th century, leprosy was a serious public health problem in Norway. By 1920, new cases only rarely occurred. This study aims to explain the disappearance of leprosy from Norway. METHODS: Data from the National Leprosy Registry of Norway and population censuses were used. The patient data include year of birth, onset of disease, registration, hospital admission, death, and emigration. The Norwegian data were analysed using epidemiological models of disease transmission and control. RESULTS: The time trend in leprosy new case detection in Norway can be reproduced adequately. The shift in new case detection towards older ages which occurred over time is accounted for by assuming that infected individuals may have a very long incubation period. The decline cannot be explained fully by the Norwegian policy of isolation of patients: an autonomous decrease in transmission, reflecting improvements in for instance living conditions, must also be assumed. The estimated contribution of the isolation policy to the decline in new case detection very much depends on assumptions made on build-up of contagiousness during the incubation period and waning of transmission opportunities due to rapid transmission to close contacts. CONCLUSION: The impact of isolation on interruption of transmission remains uncertain. This uncertainty also applies to contemporary leprosy control that mainly relies on chemotherapy treatment. Further research is needed to establish the impact of leprosy interventions on transmission. (AU). Descriptors: SIMULACAO POR COMPUTADOR HANSENIASE/epidemiol HANSENIASE/prev HANSENIASE/transm ISOLAMENTO DE PACIENTES NORUEGA/epidemiol - MODELOS ESTATISTICOS  SISTEMA DE REGISTROS Limits: HUMANO CRIANÇA ADULTO MEIA-IDADE IDOSO ADOLESCENTE Electronic Medium: http://www.ilsl.br Location: BR191.1; 09039/s

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Id: 11434 Author: Jacob, Shanti; Patil, Mothiram K Title: Three-dimensional foot modeling and analysis of stresses in normal and early stage Hansen's disease with muscle paralysis ..- Source: s.l; s.n; 1999. 12 p. ilus, tab. Descriptors: BIOMECANICA ESTUDOS DE CASOS E CONTROLES SIMULAÇAO POR COMPUTADOR AVANÇO DA DOENÇA PÉ HANSENIASE MODELOS ANATOMICOS PARALISIA PARALISIA PARALISIA DOENÇAS DO SISTEMA NERVOSO PERIFÉRICO DOENÇAS DO SISTEMA NERVOSO PERIFÉRICO DOENÇAS DO SISTEMA NERVOSO PERIFÉRICO REPRODUTIBILIDADE DE RESULTADOS FATORES DE RISCO ESTRESSE MECANICO CAMINHADA ANALISE DE ELEMENTO FINITO Location: BR191.1; 08316/s

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